Instructor: Adam S. Sikora (Math Dept.)
Class meets: Tu,Th 11:00-12:20pm. 250 Math Bldg. Your attendance is expected.
Recitations for MTH412: Tu 8:30-9:20, 250 Math Bldg., with Haodong Lin, haodongl@buffalo.edu
My office hour: Thu 2-3pm or by appointment.
Class announcements will appear at UBLearns.

Text: Mathematical Statistics with Resampling and R, by Laura Chihara and Tim Hesterberg (3rd edition, Wiley, 2022) ISBN-13: 978-1119874034.
Please check UB Bookstore , Amazon, and perhaps other retailers for best prices.

Course Description This is a statistics course for advanced undergraduate/graduate students in mathematics, science, and engineering, who have had a one-semester course in Probability Theory. The course emphasizes rigourous use of statistical results, understanding of the limitations of statistical analysis, usage of statistical packages written in R, and analysis of real-world data from case studies.

Topics: Graphical and numerical techniques for exploring data. Use and accuracy of population samples using parametric and nonparametric methods. Determination of probability distributions from statistical data. Use of computational methods based on resampling of data to determine reliability of statistical information. Classical statistical inference methods: probability distribution estimation, confidence intervals for statistical results, hypothesis testing for statistical significance. Fitting of data using linear regression and determining the accuracy of fit. Bayesian methods for estimating probability distributions using prior information.

Read ahead in the book to get the most out of lectures!

Tentative Schedule of HWs, Quizzes, and Tests (Note: Ch. 2a and 2b mean the first and the 2nd half of Chapter 2.)

Tue Recitation	Tue Class	Thu Class
		1/22 Ch 1
1/27 Probability Review	Ch 2a, HW1 due 2/3	1/29 Ch 2b
2/3 HW1 + Quiz	Ch 3a, HW2 due 2/10	2/5 Ch 3b
2/10 HW2 + Quiz	Ch 4a, HW3 due 2/17	2/12 Ch 4b
2/17 HW3 + Quiz	Ch 5a, HW4 due 2/24	2/19 Ch 5b
2/24 HW4 + Quiz	Ch 5c, HW5 due 3/3	2/26 Test 1 HW1-4
3/3 HW5 no Quiz	Ch 6a, HW6 due 3/10	3/5 Ch 6b
3/10 HW6 with Quiz	Ch 6c, HW7 due 3/24	3/12 Ch 7a
3/17 Spring Break	Spring Break	3/19 Spring Break
3/24 HW7 with Quiz	Ch 7b, HW8 due 3/31	3/26 Ch 7c
3/31 HW8 with Quiz	Review, HW9 due 4/7	4/2 Test 2 HW5-8
4/7 HW9 no Quiz	Ch 8a, HW10 due 4/14	4/9 Ch 8b
4/14 HW10 with Quiz	Ch 9a, HW11 due 4/21	4/16 Ch 9b
4/21 HW11 with Quiz	Ch 10a, HW12 due 4/28	4/23 Ch 10b
4/28 HW12 with Quiz	Ch 10c, HW12 due 5/5	4/30 TBA
5/5	Review	5/7 Final Exam: Comprehensive

TBA = to be announced.

Tests 1,2 will take place during regular class hours. Final exam takes place on May 7th, 11:45am-2:45pm. IDs will be checked. You are expected to take each test as scheduled, unless you have a documented medical or other documented valid reason. Contact me before taking an exam if you are seriously ill.
Calculator policy for the tests: scientific, non-graphing calculators, without ability to storing formulas on these calculators.

Most HW will be assigned on Webwork .
However, some HW will require you work with statistics program R. I recommend RStudio for work in R.

There will be quizzes in recitations for MTH412. No makeups will be given for these quizzes, but the lowest mark will be dropped without penalty.

Final MTH412 grade will be based on

• Quizzes 20%
• HW 15%,
• Tests 1 & 2, 20% each
• Final Exam 25%

Final MTH512 grade will be based on

• HW 20%,
• Tests 1 & 2, 25% each
• Final Exam 30%

Student Learning Outcomes Upon successful completion of this course students will be able to:

• describe data sets using statistics and represent data graphically (Ch 1-2 HW, Exam 1)
• use statistics to determine if data supports a theory or not (Ch 3 - 11 HW, Exam 1,2,3)
• determine the reliability of statistical information using probability-based or computational based tests (Ch 4,5,7,8,10 HW, Exam 2,3)
• find correlations in data and quantify the variability in the correlations (Ch 9 HW, Exam 3)
• use prior information about a system in a statistical analysis of data (Ch 11 HW, Exam 3)
• use R programming language for statistical analyses (Ch 2-11 HW)

Academic integrity is a fundamental university value. Students caught cheating on exams, quizzes or HW will be penalized.

Incomplete: Incompletes will only be given for reasons beyond your control, serious illness. You must be passing the course to get an incomplete. University policy is that if you receive an 'I' grade (incomplete), then you are also assigned a default grade, which is the grade you have already earned averaged with a 0 on the remaining work. It is easy to see that even a good student will normally receive an 'F' as the default grade. This appears on your transcript, as 'I/F', until you make up the incomplete or 15 months elapse, when you would receive the default grade (you would receive the F in this example).
Students who received an incomplete in a previous class should not register for this class, but must file a petition form with the Math Department.