The New Republic (May 12, 2014) story by Sasha Issenberg
on my initial research on Surge & Decline.
For more see:
The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections, 2nd ed.(1997),
pages xv and xvi for the 1981 Newt Gingrich story and
ch.5 for the Revised Theory of Surge and Decline
(see p.107 for a summary)
A Favorite Photograph: A parrot tips former President Calvin Coolidge's hat
at the William Wrigley estate. Wrigley and Mrs. Coolidge are amused, as is the
former President. The parrot had no comment. (AP photo 2/21/1930)
A Favorite Quotation -- Words for Political Scientists to Live By:
"The greater the distance from data to conclusions, the more opportunity for error."
Christopher H. Achen
“Political Attitudes and Survey Response”
APSR (1975, 1231)
Favorite All-Purpose Review:
"I liked what James Campbell of the University at Buffalo wrote."
David Broder
The Washington Post (4/9/01)
As seen in the National Geographic magazine:
"The Geography of U.S. Elections"
The World By Numbers: My Seven
National Geographic (11/04)
My Views(Under Construction)
My Personal Page(Under Construction)
"Issues in Presidential Election Forecasting:
Election Margins, Incumbency, and Model Credibility"
The False Premise of Bartels' Unequal Democracy
Research
My research general examines issues relating to electoral change at the national (or macro) level. I have examined long-term partisan change (realignments), inter-election electoral change (surge and decline), change within an election year (campaign effects, election forecasting, and specific election analysis), and the consequences of electoral change. I try to produce rigorous and accessible quantitative research on subjects that are both politically and theoretically important as well as research that is as specific or precise as possible and findings that are robust--research that "you can hang your hat on."
The Cook Political Report's Congressional District Election Handicapping Data (1984, 1988, 1992-2000, and 2002-2010) (excel files)
The reports were usually those that were the latest available before Labor Day. They range from late July to very early September. Most are from late August.
An analysis through 2008 of the accuracy of the Cook Report's classifications with the dates of the reports
examined: CookAccuracySummary
Code for Cook classification of districts: 0 Solid Republican, 1 Likely Republican, 2 Leans Republican, 3 Toss Up Republican,
4 Toss Up Democrat, 5 Leans Democrat, 6 Likely Democrat, and 7 Solid Democrat
The Forecasting Model in which the day were used: The Seats in Trouble Model.
The Economic Records of the Presidents Data (Annual Data) (systat file, 3/2011)
Annual Data (xls file)
Quarterly Data (xls file) (used in Appendix and in Calculating Lagged Economies in the 3rd and 4th Qtrs of the Prior Year)
Used in "The Economic Records of the Presidents: Party Differences and Inherited Economic Conditions," The Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in
Contemporary Politics, v.9, n.1, article 7 (April 2011), pp.1-29.
National Presidential Election Forecasting Model Data (xls file, 2/2011)
Used in “The Trial-Heat Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Vote: Performance and Values Considerations in an Open Seat Election,” PS: Political Science &
Politics, v.41, n.4 (October 2008), pp.697-701.
Conditional Retrospective Voting Data
Aggregate (Macro)Data (xls file, 2/2011)
Individual (Micro) Data (Stata file, 4/2011)
Used in “The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting: Does the Presidential Record Matter Less in Open Seat Elections?” The Journal of Politics, v.72,
n.4 (October 2010), pp. 1083-1095. With Bryan J. Dettrey and Hongxing Yin.
These data are the aggregates of NES data party identification distributions reweighted to the real world turnout (VEP) and presidential vote distributions.
Used in “Explaining Politics, Not Polls: Examining Macropartisanship with Recalibrated NES Data,” Public Opinion Quarterly, v.74, n.4 (October
2010), pp.616-42.
“The President’s Economy: Parity in Presidential Party Performance,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, v.42, n.4 (December 2012), 811-18.
This article is in rebuttal to an article by Michael Comiskey and Lawrence C. Marsh (March 2012, Presidential Studies Quarterly) that took issue with The Forum piece on the economic records of the presidents controversy. They also had a rejoinder to my rebuttal in the Decembner 2012 issue, but I believe the issues that they raised had been dealt with in the December rebuttal. For more about this see: The False Premise of Bartels' Unequal Democracy
"The Economic Records of the Presidents:
Party Differences and Inherited Economic Conditions," The Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics, v.9, n.1, article 7 (April 2011) pp.1-29.
This article is a rebuttal to the findings of party differences in the economic records of Post WW2 presidents. That finding is the basis for Larry Bartels' Unequal Democracy (Princeton University Press, 2008). To view the entire issue of The Forum, click here
“Political Forces on the Obama Presidency: From Elections to Governing,” In The Obama Presidency: Appraisals and Prospects, edited by Bert A. Rockman, Andrew Rudalevige, and Colin Campbell (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2012), pp. 67-93.
“Presidential Politics in a Polarized Nation: The Re-election of George W. Bush,” In The George W. Bush Legacy, edited by Colin Campbell, Bert A. Rockman, and Andrew Rudalevige (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2008), pp. 21-44.
The American Campaign, Second Edition: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press, 2008, 312 pages. First edition was published by Texas A&M University Press, 2000, 315 pages. Number six in The Joseph V. Hughes Jr. and Holly O. Hughes Series in the Presidency and Leadership Studies, James P. Pfiffner, General Series Editor.
“Context and Strategy in Presidential Campaigns: Incumbency and the Political Climate,” Journal of Political Marketing, v.8, n.4 (October-December 2009), pp. 292-314. With Bryan J. Dettrey.
“Do Swing Voters Swing Elections?” The Swing Voter in American Politics, edited by William G. Mayer (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2008) chapter 7, pp. 118-32.
“Nomination Politics, Party Unity, and Presidential Elections,” In Understanding the Presidency: 2004 Election Season Update, Third Edition, edited by James P. Pfiffner and Roger H. Davidson, (New York: Pearson Longman, 2005), chapter 13, pp.71-84. Revised and updated for the fourth edition (2007), chapter 12, pp.74-90. Reprinted in the fifth edition (2008), chapter 12. Reprinted in the sixth edition (2011), chapter 11, pp.67-83. The 2011 reprint is posted.
“The Electoral College and Campaign Strategy,” In Choosing a President: The Electoral College and Beyond, edited by Paul D. Schumaker and Burdett A. Loomis, (New York, NY: Chatham House Publishers, 2002), pp.102-112. With William G. Mayer, Emmett H. Buell, Jr., and Mark Joslyn.
“When Have Presidential Campaigns Decided Election Outcomes?” American Politics Research, v.29, n.5, (September 2001) pp.437-60.
“Presidential Election Campaigns and Partisanship,” In American Political Parties: Decline or Resurgence?, edited by Jeffrey E. Cohen, Richard Fleisher, and Paul Kantor, (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2001), pp.11-29.
“The Convention Bump,” American Politics Quarterly, v.20, n.3 (July 1992) pp.287-307. With Lynna L. Cherry and Kenneth A. Wink.
“The Electoral Consequences of Issue Ambiguity: An Examination of the Presidential Candidates' Issue Positions from 1968 to 1980,” Political Behavior, v.5, n.3 (1983), pp.277-291.
“Ambiguity in the Issue Positions of Presidential Candidates: A Causal Analysis,” American Journal of Political Science, v.27, n.2 (May 1983), pp.284-293.
The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections, Second Edition. Lexington, KY: The University Press of Kentucky, 1997, 316 pages. First edition was published by The University Press of Kentucky, 1993, 273 pages.
“The Presidential Pulse and the 1994 Midterm Congressional Election,” The Journal of Politics, v.59, n.3 (August 1997) pp.830-857.
“Surge and Decline: The National Evidence,” In Controversies in Voting Behavior, 3rd edition, edited by Richard Niemi and Herbert Weisberg, (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 1992), pp.222-240.
“The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections, 1868–1988,” In The Atomistic Congress: An Interpretation of Congressional Change, edited by Allen D. Hertzke and Ronald M. Peters, Jr., (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1992), pp.49-72.
“The Presidential Surge and its Midterm Decline in Congressional Elections, 1868–1988,” The Journal of Politics, v.53, n.2 (May 1991) pp.477-487.
“Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections,” American Political Science Review, v.84, n.2 (June 1990) pp.513-524. With Joe A. Sumners.
“The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline,” American Journal of Political Science, v.31, n.4 (November 1987) pp.965-979.
“Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections,” American Political Science Review, v.80, n.1 (March 1986), pp.45-63.
“Predicting Seat Gains from Presidential Coattails,” American Journal of Political Science, v.30, n.1 (February 1986), pp.165-183.
“Explaining Presidential Losses in Midterm Congressional Elections,” The Journal of Politics, v.47, n.1 (November 1985), pp.1140-1157.
See also, congressional election forecasts below.
“Explaining Politics, Not Polls: Examining Macropartisanship with Recalibrated NES Data,” Public Opinion Quarterly, v.74, n.4 (October 2010), pp.616-42.
“Party Systems and Realignments in the United States, 1868-2004.” Social Science History, v.30, issue 3 (Fall 2006), pp. 359-86.
“Voter Mobilization and the New Deal Realignment: A Rejoinder to Erikson and Tedin,” Western Political Quarterly, v.39, n.4 (December 1986) pp.733-735.
“Sources of the New Deal Realignment: The Contributions of Conversion and Mobilization to Partisan Change,” Western Political Quarterly, v.38, n.3 (September 1985), pp.357-376.
“Intra-Party Democracy and Inter-Party Competition,” Southeastern Political Review, v.12, n.1 (Spring 1984), pp.33-55.
“Partisanship and Voting,” In Research in Micropolitics: A Research Annual, edited by Samuel Long, (Greenwich, Connecticut: JAI Press, 1986), pp.99-126. With Mary Munro, John R. Alford, and Bruce A. Campbell.
See also, The American Campaign, particularly the Appendix on the extent and realignment of partisanship and “Nomination Politics, Party Unity, and Presidential Elections” and "The Convention Bump" on the importance of early party unity (in Presidential Campaigns section above).
“The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting: Does the Presidential Record Matter Less in Open Seat Elections?” The Journal of Politics, v.72, n.4 (October 2010), pp. 1083-1095. With Bryan J. Dettrey and Hongxing Yin.
"Context and Strategy in Presidential Campaigns: Incumbency and the Political Climate,” Journal of Political Marketing, v.8, n.4 (October-December 2009), pp. 292-314. With Bryan J. Dettrey.
See also, the post-2000 election forecasting articles below.
"Issues in Presidential Election Forecasting: Election Margins, Incumbency, and Model Credibility," PS: Political Science & Politics, v.47, n.2 (April 2014), pp.301-3.
“Evaluating U.S. Presidential Election Forecasts and Forecasting Equations,” International Journal of Forecasting, v.24, n.2 (April-June 2008), pp. 259-271.
"U.S. Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, v.24, n.2 (April-June 2008), pp. 189-192.
“Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States, 1948-2004: An Update, Revision, and Extension of a State-Level Presidential Forecasting Model,” Journal of Political Marketing, v.5, n.1&2 (April 2006), pp. 33-57. With Syed Ali and Farida Jalalzai.
Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections. Co-edited with James C. Garand, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2000, 224 pages.
“The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections,” In Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections, co-edited with James C. Garand, (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2000) pp.169-187.
“Forecasting U.S. National Elections,” In Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections, co-edited with James C. Garand, (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2000), pp.3-14. With James C. Garand.
“Forecasting the Presidential Election: What Can We Learn from the Models?” The Brookings Review, v.14, n.4 (Fall 1996) pp. 26-31. With Thomas E. Mann.
“Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States,” American Journal of Political Science, v.36, n.2 (May 1992) pp.386-407.
“Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote,” American Politics Quarterly, v.18, n.3 (July 1990) pp.251-269. With Kenneth A. Wink.
“The Miserable Presidential Election of 2012: A First Party-Term Incumbent Survives,” The Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics, v.10, n.4, (February 2013) pp.20-8.
“A First Party-Term Incumbent Survives: The Fundamentals of 2012,” In Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, edited by Larry J. Sabato (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2013) chapter 3, pp. 59-73.
“Closeness Counts in Horse Shoes, Dancing, and Forecasting,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.46, n.1 (January 2013), pp. 40-1.
“Forecasting the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012: The Trial-Heat and the Seats-in-Trouble Models,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.45, n.4 (October 2012), 630-34.
“The Midterm Landslide of 2010: A Triple Wave Election,” The Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics, v.8, n. 4, article 3 (December 2010), 1-19.
“The Predicted Midterm Landslide,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.44, n.1 (January 2011), 1.
“The Seats in Trouble Forecast of the 2010 Elections to the U.S. House,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.43, n.4 (October 2010), 627-30.
“Introduction: Forecasts of the 2010 Midterm Elections,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.43, n.4 (October 2010), 625-6.
Introduction to the symposium.
“The Exceptional Election of 2008: Performance, Values, and Crisis,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, v.40, n.2 (June 2010), pp. 225-46. Special Issue: The 2008 Presidential Election, Part I.
“An Exceptional Election: Performance, Values, and Crisis in the 2008 Presidential Election,” The Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics, v.6, n.4, article 7 (December 2008), pp. 1-20.
“Evaluating U.S. Presidential Election Forecasts and Forecasting Equations,” International Journal of Forecasting, v.24, n.2 (April-June 2008), pp. 259-271.
“U.S. Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction,” International Journal of Forecasting, v.24, n.2 (April-June 2008), pp.189-92. With Michael S. Lewis-Beck. Introduction the issue.
“The 2008 Campaign and the Forecasts Derailed,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.42, n.1 (January 2009), pp. 19-20.
“The Trial-Heat Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Vote: Performance and Values Considerations in an Open Seat Election,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.41, n.4 (October 2008), pp.697-701.
“Editor’s Introduction: Forecasting the 2008 National Elections,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.41, n.4 (October 2008), pp.679-81. Introduction to the symposium.
“Forecasting the 2006 National Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives,” The Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics, v.4, n.1, article 2 (September 2006), pp.1-12.
“Why Bush Won the Presidential Election of 2004: Incumbency, Ideology, Terrorism, and Turnout,” Political Science Quarterly, v.120, n.2, (Summer 2005), pp.219-241.
“The Fundamentals in U.S. Presidential Elections: Public Opinion, the Economy, and Incumbency in the 2004 Presidential Election,”Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, v.15, n.1. (2005), pp.73-83.
“The Presidential Election of 2004: The Fundamentals and the Campaign,” The Forum: A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics, v.2, n.4, article 1 (December 2004), pp.1-16.
“Evaluating the Trial-Heat and Economy Forecast of the 2004 Presidential Vote: All’s Well that Ends Well,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.38, n.1 (January 2005), pp.33-34.
“Forecasting the Presidential Vote in 2004: Placing Preference Polls in Context,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.37, n.4 (October 2004), pp.763-7.
“Introduction: Assessments of the 2004 Presidential Vote Forecasts,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.38, n.1 (January 2005), p.23. Introduction the symposium.
2002
“The 2002 Midterm Election: A Typical or an Atypical Midterm?” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.36, n.2 (April 2003), pp.203-7.
“The 2000 Presidential Election of George W. Bush: The Difficult Birth of a Presidency,” In Transformed by Crisis: The Presidency of George W. Bush and American Politics, edited by Jon Kraus, Kevin J. McMahon, and David M. Rankin (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), chapter 2, pp.9-28.
“The Curious and Close Presidential Campaign of 2000,” In America's Choice 2000, edited by William Crotty, (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2001), pp.115-137.
“Taking Stock of the Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election,” American Politics Research, v.29, n.3, (May 2001) pp.275-8.
“The Referendum that Didn't Happen: The Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.34, n.1 (March 2001), pp.33-38.
“An Evaluation of the Trial-Heat and Economy Forecast of the Presidential Vote in the 2000 Election,” American Politics Research, v.29, n.3 (May 2001), 289-96.
“Polls and Votes: The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns,” American Politics Quarterly, v.24, n.4 (October 1996) pp.408-433. Updated and extended with additional section "After the 1996 Election" for Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections, co-edited with James C. Garand, (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2000), pp.17-46.
“A Special Issue on Forecasting the 1996 Elections,” American Politics Quarterly, v.24, n.4 (October 1996) pp.403-7. With James C. Garand.
“Forecasting the 1992 Presidential Election: A User's Guide to the Models,” The Brookings Review, v.10, n.4 (Fall 1992) pp.22-27. With Thomas E. Mann.
“Evaluating the 1986 Congressional Election Forecasts,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.20, n.1 (Winter 1987) pp.37-42.
“Forecasting the 1986 Midterm Elections to the House of Representatives,” PS: Political Science & Politics, v.19, n.1 (Winter 1986), pp.83-87.
Cheap Seats: The Democratic Party's Advantage in U.S. House Elections. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 1996, 336 pages. First book in the Parliaments and Legislatures Series, Samuel C. Patterson, General Advisory Editor
“The Stagnation of Congressional Elections,” In Life After Reform: When the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act Meets Politics, A Campaign Finance Institute Book, edited by Michael J. Malbin, (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003), pp. 141-58.
“The Decline of Competition and Change in Congressional Elections,” In Congress Responds to the Twentieth Century, edited by Sunil Ahuja and Robert Dewhirst, (Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 2003), pp. 43-72. With Steve J. Jurek. (manuscript version pdf)
“Television Markets and Congressional Elections,” Legislative Studies Quarterly, v.9, n.4 (November 1984), pp.665-678. With John R. Alford and Keith Henry.
“The Return of the Incumbents: The Nature of the Incumbency Advantage,” Western Political Quarterly, v.36, n.3 (September 1983), pp.434-444.
“Cosponsoring Legislation in the U.S. Congress,” Legislative Studies Quarterly, v.7, n.3 (August 1982), pp.415-422.
“Electoral Competition and the Congressional Connection: The Marginality Hypothesis Reconsidered,” Political Methodology, v.7, n.2 (1981), pp.55-70.
“Candidate Image Evaluations: Influence and Rationalization in Presidential Primaries,” American Politics Quarterly, v.11, n.3 (July 1983), pp.292-313.
“Style Issues and Vote Choice,” Political Behavior, v.1, n.3 (Fall 1979) pp.203-215. With Kenneth J. Meier.
“Issue Voting: An Empirical Examination of Individually Necessary and Jointly Sufficient Conditions,” American Politics Quarterly, v.7, n.1 (January 1979), pp.21-50. With Kenneth J. Meier.
“Has Growing Income Inequality Polarized the American Electorate? Class, Party, and Ideological Polarization,” Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming 2013. With Bryan J. Dettrey.
“Polarization Runs Deep, Even by Yesterday’s Standards,” In Red and Blue Nation? Characteristics and Causes of America’s Polarized Politics, edited by Pietro S. Nivola and David W. Brady, (Washington, D.C.: Brookings, 2007), pp. 106-16.
“Public Support for Comparable Worth in Georgia,” Public Administration Review, v.46, n.5 (September/ October 1986) pp.432-437. With Gregory B. Lewis.
From a Quiz in a University at Buffalo publication --
Answer: B